If you study the history of technology you’ll see that the first wave of any technology is over-hyped but the second wave is always underestimated. And the second wave of the Web, or what we refer to as the pervasive Internet, has begun. This first wave/second wave model of technology has been proven time and time again, from the automobile to television to personal computers to cell phones to PDAs and now the Web.

You see, the inventors, the early adopters, and the PR firms all hype the “new thing” in the first wave to the point of unsustainable expectations and broken promises. Inevitably over time, disillusionment sets in (really bad disillusionment in the case of the “tech wreck” of 2000/2001). Things go quiet for a period of time – until the second wave starts building. Like a tsunami traveling across the ocean, unseen under the surface of the water, the growth of the second wave happens almost imperceptibly until suddenly it is bigger than anyone ever imagined it could be. (more…)